FFXIV – Patch-driven Price Cycle?

No data this time, just some thoughts on what I’ve observed as I collected my data. Specifically, the prices of grade 7 and 8 Savage Aim and Heavens’ Eye materia.

Up until recently, I’ve watched as the price of these specific materias slowly slid downward. Very slowly, but notably so. By the end of last week it was easy to find the 7s below 1k/ea and the 8s could usually be found as low as 15k/ea. When I started it was closer to 5k and 25k, respectively, so that’s a pretty notable decline over about a month’s time.

Over the course of the weekend, I noticed a server here and there would experience a sharp rise in price, especially the 7s. As of last night, prices were largely 5k/ea for the 7s on all servers and around 20k/ea for the 8s. I’m assuming since a new patch just dropped, a major equipment update/grind patch at that, people are coming back and/or preparing to upgrade. Economically this would be a surge in demand which should push the price up, so the change I’m seeing at least makes sense.

What practical value does this have? Well, if you were attempting to make money, I would suggest buying about a week before a major patch. Especially for things like materia that are largely disposable and tied to the equipment upgrade cycle. I would caution against dumping it all at once, but you don’t want to hold onto it all that long either or you’ll be “stuck with it” until the next major patch.

Just a thought, not something I intend to act upon personally. I’ve been considering the details of taking the next stage of this further afield and including additional games to see if some of the things I see here can be generalized. I’m not sure all of them will, FFXIV has a pretty consistent patch schedule. Loathe as I am to admit it, WoW should be on the shortlist of places to look. I would especially like to look at data for things like the WoW token, lockbox keys, plex, that sort of thing. I don’t have a good analog for those in FFXIV and I think other researchers and non-gamers may find its more business-oriented implications more interesting.

My problem with most other games is that lack the same level of expertise I use to identify the important goods of FFXIV. It’s only because of my time raiding and doing end-game grind that I’m able to discern which items are important. While I’m confident that I could assimilate approximate knowledge of these things by reading up on a given game’s raid meta, there would be… limitations.

What I’m seeing suggests to me a sort of population/price cycle that’s likely tied to FFXIV’s patch cycle. This will actually go into my notes as a specific item of interest that I need to test later. I’m not really that surprised, I guess. It makes sense that this should occur.

I’m wondering to what degree the content/patch “heartbeat” helps regulate and/or (de)stabilize the market.

Anyway, that’s enough musing for today, I think. Y’all take care, and beware of financial and investment advice from strangers. Virtual or otherwise.


blapril-2020-200Hey, it’s Blapril time! The goal is to simply promote and stimulate the blogging community by encouraging people of all skill levels and backgrounds to post. The official post can be found here and it’s never too late to start.

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