Research – Virtual Good Volatility?

I’ve spent a fair amount of time lately considering exactly what it is I would like to get from my data. What questions do I wish to answer and how exactly should I structure that… query. In the meantime, I’ve been working on different ways to sort and recombine data.

primal iron
NQ Iron Ore daily for the entire data center.

I just realized that I’m quickly approaching the one month mark, my original intended stopping point. I’m… not sure I’m ready to stop. Logically I have to stop eventually, but the longer I collect data the more likely it is that inflation and arbitrage will become detectable.

The mean price for that specific iron ore data is 141 Gil/unit with a standard deviation of 44 Gil. Even if inflation was absurd, say 10%, that would only be a 14 gil increase. That kind of number is easily lost within the volatility, and I’m pretty confident it’s not anyway near that high. At a glance, Iron looks more deflated over this time period than anything else. That’s assuming it’s even fair to lump an entire data center together like that. I’m not sure it is for Iron but I’m not certain exactly how to test that.

savage aim 8
Savage Aim 8 for Primal Data Center

I suspect it’s more helpful to combine items like materia that I know to experience some level of arbitrage. (M=32162, Std.D=2793) It also has a much more reasonable standard deviation than Iron Ore. Iron’s is 31% of the mean while Savage Aim 8 is closer to 9%. Is that even a reasonable way to measure volatility? Is it a good indicator of arbitrage? Must think about this.

That said, I need to double-check those prices at some point. If you randomly asked me what the typical buying price was, I’d say 15k-25k. I think that’s because I usually only see the ten lowest price listings, but I’d like to confirm a few manually just to be sure.

Okay, well, I’ve written and deleted several different paragraphs at this point, so I believe I’m done for now. It is my intention to write a post about The Outer Worlds tomorrow. I can’t tell if its particular brand of corporate dystopia is appropriate, timely, or offensive at the moment. Maybe all of the above, but it certainly isn’t helping my mood.

Y’all stay safe and take care. It’s not the best choice, it’s Spacer’s Choice.

2 thoughts on “Research – Virtual Good Volatility?

  1. I haven’t played the game for a while so this is purely my speculation. But if there is a deflation for iron ore could it be caused by the Ishgard Restoration? Like, people trying to level up their crafters through it then dumping all the leftover materials on the market to get some money.

    I could be (and probably am) completely wrong though since I don’t remember if any of the Ishgard Restoration recipes require iron ore.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. I think the Ishgardian Restoration uses mostly it’s own stuff like Skybuilder’s Iron Ore? I havn’t participated, so I’m not sure.

      It’s important to remember that when I say deflated, I also mean deflated over the month I’ve been looking at it. In a larger long-term sense it’s hard to really say. It was cheaper in my first study, so in that sense it’s inflated now, but in the oldest data I’ve found online both my current sets are deflated.
      Iron ore isn’t really an economic staple in XIV though. I think to answer the question I want, the high grade materia and raid-tier consumables are my best bets, and I may have to go long-term, months, to see any appreciable effect emerge.

      Liked by 1 person

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s