I’ve spent a fair amount of time lately considering exactly what it is I would like to get from my data. What questions do I wish to answer and how exactly should I structure that… query. In the meantime, I’ve been working on different ways to sort and recombine data.
I just realized that I’m quickly approaching the one month mark, my original intended stopping point. I’m… not sure I’m ready to stop. Logically I have to stop eventually, but the longer I collect data the more likely it is that inflation and arbitrage will become detectable.
The mean price for that specific iron ore data is 141 Gil/unit with a standard deviation of 44 Gil. Even if inflation was absurd, say 10%, that would only be a 14 gil increase. That kind of number is easily lost within the volatility, and I’m pretty confident it’s not anyway near that high. At a glance, Iron looks more deflated over this time period than anything else. That’s assuming it’s even fair to lump an entire data center together like that. I’m not sure it is for Iron but I’m not certain exactly how to test that.
I suspect it’s more helpful to combine items like materia that I know to experience some level of arbitrage. (M=32162, Std.D=2793) It also has a much more reasonable standard deviation than Iron Ore. Iron’s is 31% of the mean while Savage Aim 8 is closer to 9%. Is that even a reasonable way to measure volatility? Is it a good indicator of arbitrage? Must think about this.
That said, I need to double-check those prices at some point. If you randomly asked me what the typical buying price was, I’d say 15k-25k. I think that’s because I usually only see the ten lowest price listings, but I’d like to confirm a few manually just to be sure.
Okay, well, I’ve written and deleted several different paragraphs at this point, so I believe I’m done for now. It is my intention to write a post about The Outer Worlds tomorrow. I can’t tell if its particular brand of corporate dystopia is appropriate, timely, or offensive at the moment. Maybe all of the above, but it certainly isn’t helping my mood.
Y’all stay safe and take care. It’s not the best choice, it’s Spacer’s Choice.