FFXIV – Actual Data and Wild Speculation

Since I’ve spent so much time lately writing about my research project, I felt it was time to actually share some of the results.

lamia iron

Most of it is of little practical value. The iron was included more for the sake of being thorough and making sure I have a way to confirm things are or aren’t the same as last time. The thing that stands out the most to me is how much higher the quantity supplied is now. My previous data had a total daily supply of around 1500 units and the average here is closer to 2600 units. Of course, there’s the 7th with a rather wild 8,406 units. The market concentration (HHI) is consistent with what I saw before. We can also ignore the elasticity here. I would need a Sig below .05 to have anything useful. I’m a little disappointed, but life goes on.

behemoth iron

Behemoth is a little more exciting, but not much. The price is much higher now than it was before. My two prior data points put the average unit price around 75-85 gil. The total quantity supplied is also significantly lower. Last time it was around 6000-9000 units v. the average here of around 2000. Taken together I suppose it makes sense. A decrease in quantity supplied should lead to a higher price, assuming we’re around the equilibrium. Also an increase in concentration, though not by a lot.

lamia hq gold

For something slightly more interesting, there’s high-quality gold ore from lamia. Fairly stable concentration compared to iron. However, what got my attention was the elasticity that not only got three significant results but results that were fairly similar. Now, elasticity is telling us the percentage change in quantity with regard to price. Since this is supply data, what people are attempting to sell, it should be positive. I saw this once before when I had my terms backward in the formula, but I’ve double and triple checked it and that’s not the case.

So, the question becomes why? What could possibly be occurring in this market to create a negative relationship? That is, when the price is high people actually list fewer units, and when the price is low people list more units.

At the moment, I’m wondering if this is a result of undercutting. What would it look like if the people listing new material were actively and significantly posting below the current asking price? In particular, what if you have a few major suppliers doing this so that any time a notable increase in quantity occurs it drives the average price down?

Of course, I would have to go take a closer look at the day to day happenings in the market. Might be worthwhile to add the daily deltas for quantity and sellers.

While the data is over here doing its own thing, it seems that the world has gotten quite hairy. Y’all take care, be safe, and wash your hands. Have a bonus Materia table:

lamia savaa8

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